The National Bank of Ukraine forecasts a significant increase in fuel prices by the end of 2024 - more than 9%.
According to UNIAN, the "Inflation Report" from the National Bank of Ukraine highlights that this will further impact the prices of goods and transportation services, which are already under inflationary pressure.
As per the NBU, in September 2024, fuel prices rose by only 6%, which is considerably lower than the anticipated 25.5% in June. This effect was observed due to low oil prices and high fuel reserves at gas stations accumulated before the increase in excise taxes. Additionally, the base effect resulting from tax changes in July 2023 helped to curb price growth.
However, this period of low inflation for fuel will not last long. With the decrease in fuel reserves and the rise in excise taxes, as well as the impact of the weakening hryvnia, the NBU expects that the rate of price increase will accelerate. By the end of 2024, fuel prices may rise by 9%, and this trend is expected to continue throughout most of 2025.
The rise in fuel prices will have consequences for consumers: due to increased production costs, prices for goods and transportation services will go up. However, in the medium term, a decline in global oil prices could slow down the further increase in fuel prices.