In 2025, the cost of food in Ukraine will be influenced by crop yields, the level of inflation, and the purchasing power of the population.
Economist Oleg Pendzin commented to the media that according to forecasts included in Ukraine's budget for 2025, the inflation rate is expected to be 9.5%. However, this figure is general, and different groups of products will respond to economic changes in varying ways.
The demand for expensive products, such as meat or cheese, is gradually decreasing. For instance, in 2024, meat prices rose by only 2%, while the overall food basket increased by 14-15%. This is attributed to the fact that people with limited incomes prefer cheaper goods, the economist notes.
The rising demand for affordable products, particularly bread and potatoes, is leading to their price increases. In 2024, for example, bread prices increased by 15%, and potatoes rose by nearly 30%. According to Oleg Pendzin, the following changes are expected in 2025:
- Vegetables and potatoes: by spring 2025, their prices could rise by another 30-50%. However, with the arrival of the first vegetables from open fields, prices will begin to decrease.
- Bread and dairy products: will increase by 10-15% depending on raw material costs.
- Meat: will remain relatively stable, with an increase of only 2-5% due to low demand.
"We observe that cheaper products, like potatoes or vegetables, are increasing in price faster than more expensive ones. This reflects the real purchasing power of Ukrainians," emphasizes the expert.
He also notes that imported goods, such as vegetables or fruits, may partially curb price increases. At the same time, the exchange rate of the hryvnia is not expected to have a significant impact on the overall situation.
"Fluctuations in the exchange rate will primarily affect the price of imported fish, which constitutes a small portion of the Ukrainian diet. Overall, the hryvnia remains stable, so no major changes are anticipated here," adds the economist.
Seasonality remains one of the key factors influencing prices in 2025. At the beginning of the year, further price increases for stored vegetables are expected. However, starting in May, when the new harvest appears on the market, prices will begin to decrease.