The International Monetary Fund has updated its forecast regarding the exchange rate of the dollar against the hryvnia for the year 2029, indicating how much the dollar will cost in the coming years.
This is stated in the World Economic Outlook report.
According to the forecasts of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the average annual exchange rate of the hryvnia to the dollar for the upcoming years will be as follows:
- 2024 – 41.0 UAH/USD (April forecast – 41.0 UAH/USD)
- 2025 – 45.0 UAH/USD (April forecast – 45.8 UAH/USD)
- 2026 – 46.8 UAH/USD (April forecast – 48.6 UAH/USD)
- 2027 – 48.6 UAH/USD (April forecast – 50.4 UAH/USD)
- 2028 – 50.2 UAH/USD (April forecast – 52.1 UAH/USD)
- 2029 – 51.7 UAH/USD (April forecast – 54.1 UAH/USD)
These forecasts largely align with the estimates of the Ukrainian government. According to the state budget law for 2024, the average exchange rate of the dollar is set at 40.7 UAH, and the draft budget for 2025 plans a rate of 45.0 UAH per dollar.
In June, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine approved the Budget Declaration for 2025-2027, in which the government forecasts an increase in the average dollar exchange rate:
- 2025 – 45.0 UAH;
- 2026 – 46.5 UAH;
- 2027 – 46.4 UAH.
It should be noted that forecasts indicate that in 2025, Ukraine's national debt will exceed 100% of the gross domestic product (GDP) for the first time. By that year, the debt level is expected to reach 95.6% of GDP, and it is anticipated to grow to 106.6% in 2024.