Is Ukraine's accession to the EU possible during the war?
I hope this war does not last for many more years. However, despite the exhausting struggle for survival, Ukraine is implementing numerous reforms necessary for EU accession. Ukrainians are doing this at a remarkable pace.
I believe that the prospect of EU membership gives us hope. Ironically, it is during the war that a consensus has been reached regarding reforms. Implementing these reforms is a very complex and lengthy process. Nevertheless, Ukrainians are progressing incredibly quickly down this path, despite the ongoing hostilities and full-scale Russian invasion.
No one knows when this war will end. However, the path to EU membership is long and arduous. Such things do not happen overnight, so I wouldn't want to speculate on this topic.
In any case, Europe is looking forward to a democratic, prosperous, and peaceful Ukraine in the European Union. Both sides would benefit from Ukraine's accession to the EU.
Ukraine is implementing reforms to join the EU. However, the EU also needs reforms to be ready for expansion. How will the EU change to smoothly navigate through this new wave of expansion?
The EU is certainly capable of expanding. In fact, except for the last 10 years, new countries have joined the EU every decade, starting from the establishment of the European Economic Community to the transformation of this union into the European Union. In my opinion, the expansion of the European Union is an example of successful policy. It is a guarantee of sustainable development and helps to increase the zone of stability, peace, and prosperity in Europe.
I am convinced that the EU can continue to expand. This is a complex process that requires many decisions to be made. Alongside the reforms in countries wishing to join the European family, the EU must also change and adapt to new realities.
I think the decision-making mechanism within the EU needs to change. This will happen in due course when the process of Euro-integration for new members is nearing completion.
You have spent a lot of time in Ukraine. What do you think Ukraine can offer the EU to make it stronger?
Ukraine can offer a great deal to the EU. The fighting spirit of Ukrainians, their resilience, motivation, and determination are unparalleled in Europe. The instinct for survival, the ability to find ways to improve under very challenging conditions, and the capacity to adapt to any circumstances are all qualities that make Ukrainians unique. They are ready to fight for freedom and defend European values.
It is also important to highlight Ukraine's national unity, exceptional army, and security system. The world is a much more dangerous place now than it was several decades ago. Personally, I would certainly sleep more soundly knowing that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are standing guard over the EU. Additionally, we should not forget that Ukraine has the capacity to feed the entire world. All these qualities will make the EU stronger.
Furthermore, the "Diia" app and several other convenient digital services are among the wonders that set Ukraine apart from other European countries.
Overall, the key qualities of Ukrainians that would strengthen a united Europe are their indomitable spirit and incredible adaptability.
Do Western leaders realize that a ceasefire without security guarantees would be a disaster for Ukraine? If so, what options do they have on the table to prevent this scenario?
I think there is a growing awareness among European leaders that the real prerequisite for any just and sustainable peace is the assurance of every Ukrainian citizen that the horrors of war and Russian invasion will not be repeated. The conversation about a ceasefire is complicated if it is not paired with the need for effective security guarantees for Ukraine.
Under what conditions can Ukraine expect the confiscation of frozen Russian assets in the EU and the use of these funds to support its defense and post-war recovery?
The West has already taken two important steps in this direction. We have frozen Russian assets and allowed the use of the funds obtained, which are already being invested in Ukraine's energy security. We have already invested 400 million euros in the Ukrainian defense industry using the so-called Danish model, where Ukraine receives money to produce weapons independently.
Approximately 1.5 billion euros from the revenue of frozen Russian assets have been allocated to EU member states for supplying Ukraine with air defense systems and ammunition. In March, we plan to invest even more money into the Ukrainian defense industry and finance the supply of additional air defense systems and ammunition to Ukraine.
Debates are still ongoing about how to move from freezing Russian assets to their confiscation. However, no decisions have yet been made about how to legally formalize this.
I hope we will soon reach full confiscation of Russian assets because, in my opinion, it would be fair for Russia to bear the costs of rebuilding the destruction and damage it has inflicted on Ukraine.
The way European countries are investing in the development of the Ukrainian defense industry makes me think that in the future, Ukraine could become a true arsenal of democracy in Europe, producing more weapons than anyone else in the EU.
Ukraine has far more production capacity in its defense industry than Europe. There are opportunities to scale up Ukrainian arms production. While Ukraine is not yet capable of producing air defense systems, it is already producing a significant amount of modern weaponry: heavy equipment, howitzers, artillery shells, and drones. Soon, it will also be manufacturing rockets.
So, there is certainly an opportunity to secure funding for expanding production. I hope that EU funds will continue to be invested in the Ukrainian defense industry. Ukraine can produce much more weaponry than it currently does. Weapons production in Ukraine is faster and cheaper than in the EU.
EU countries are allocating significant funds for financial support to Ukraine. By 2025, Ukraine will receive enough money to keep its economy afloat. What about 2026?
This year, Ukraine will feel quite confident and comfortable. Financial support is at a sufficient level. In 2025, the EU will provide Ukraine with an 18 billion euro loan out of the 50 billion promised by the G7 countries. These funds will be reimbursed through revenue from frozen Russian assets.
Another 16 billion euros will be received by Ukraine through the Ukraine Facility Fund program. In December, Ukraine already received the first tranche of this amount, which was 4.1 billion euros. So in the coming year, Ukraine will receive about 30 billion euros in macro-financial assistance from the EU through various channels.
Do you agree with the statement that Ukraine needs something like a new Marshall Plan to help it cope with post-war recovery? How realistic is it to expect that such a plan will be developed in the coming years?
I don't know if the post-war recovery plan for Ukraine can be called analogous to the Marshall Plan. After all, this time, the largest assistance will likely come from Europe rather than the United States. There is certainly a need for funding for a large-scale post-war recovery of Ukraine. I am confident that when the time comes, Europe will ramp up its efforts to help Ukraine after the war, just as it is currently helping Ukrainians during the Russian invasion.
What key reforms do you think Ukraine should focus on this year?
I believe that Ukraine's movement towards EU accession during the war is happening at a very rapid pace. A lot has already been accomplished. Ukraine should continue reforms in public administration, energy security, and judicial reform.
It is also necessary to continue implementing legislation that will help reduce the level of corruption. Additionally, reforms are needed to improve the business climate in the country. If Ukraine maintains the current pace of reforms, it would be very beneficial.
There are quite a few scandals in Ukraine related to the exposure of corruption among public officials. Are Ukrainian anti-corruption institutions working effectively enough? What needs to change for them to work better?
Corruption scandals indicate that the fight against corruption in Ukraine is ongoing in full swing. That’s why you see so much coverage of this in the media. Ukrainian society pays great attention to the fight against corruption. I believe that anti-corruption institutions are doing a good job. Public and international pressure aimed at strengthening the fight against corruption is also having an effect.
Over the past 10 years, Ukraine has been moving decisively in the right direction on the Transparency International corruption index. Progress in combating corruption is evident. However, Ukraine cannot afford to stop on this path.